Russia’s Strategic Shift in Africa: From Wagner to the Africa Corps
Russia is undergoing a significant transformation in its military presence across Africa, moving away from the controversial Wagner Group and introducing a new entity known as the Africa Corps. This shift marks a strategic rebranding by Moscow, aimed at maintaining its influence while distancing itself from the negative connotations associated with Wagner.
The Rise of the Africa Corps
The Africa Corps is not an independent entity but rather a paramilitary group under the umbrella of the Russian defense ministry. Unlike Wagner, which operated as a mercenary force, the Africa Corps consists of elite combat commanders from Russia’s army. According to the group’s official Telegram channel, priority recruitment was given to current and former Wagner fighters, signaling a continuation of their operational expertise under a new name.
This transition has already begun in several African countries, including Niger and Burkina Faso, both governed by juntas. The Africa Corps has been seen conducting joint operations with local militaries against militia groups, indicating a more formalized approach to security cooperation.
Replacing Wagner in Key Regions
Wagner’s exit from parts of the Sahel region has created a vacuum that Russia is keen to fill. In countries like Mali, where Wagner sustained some of its worst losses, the group’s forces have joined local militaries in combat against insurgents. However, Wagner announced its departure from Mali in June 2024, citing the completion of a three-and-a-half-year mission.
Similarly, in the Central African Republic (CAR), Wagner has been operating since 2018 and has become the dominant force following the exit of French troops in 2022. It is widely credited with helping CAR avoid collapse. However, recent reports indicate that the Russian defense ministry has requested the substitution of Wagner with the Africa Corps in CAR, with payments made in cash.
The Motivations Behind the Move
Experts suggest that Russia’s move to replace Wagner with the Africa Corps could be a “strategic rebranding” by Moscow. With the Wagner name severely tarnished after the mutiny and the death of its leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, Russia is likely consolidating its foreign military ventures under formal state control.
By erasing the ‘Wagner’ brand while retaining its core functions under a new name like the Africa Corps, Moscow can distance itself from the mercenary narrative while maintaining a strong presence in the region. This approach also offers greater control over operations, potentially more international legitimacy, and fewer legal and reputational risks.
Legal and Reputational Risks
Wagner has faced lawsuits from human rights groups over accusations of human rights abuses. The European Union sanctioned the Wagner Group and individuals and entities connected to it in 2021 and 2023. These sanctions included the head of the Wagner Group in Mali, where mercenaries have been involved in acts of violence and multiple human rights abuses.
United Nations experts have also called for an independent investigation into alleged crimes committed by the Wagner Group and the Malian military. Their statement highlighted the lack of transparency and ambiguity over the legal status of the Wagner Group, creating a climate of terror and complete impunity for victims of the group’s abuses.
Mixed Views on Impact
While some argue that Wagner’s counterterrorism operations with local armies have had a mixed impact on the continent, others believe that the Africa Corps may not bring significant changes on the battlefield. Security consultant Mamadou Adje noted that since Wagner forces joined the fight, jihadists have spread across Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger with lots of civilian casualties.
However, Héni Nsaibia, a senior analyst at ACLED, pointed out that Wagner helped Mali’s military achieve some tactical and strategic victories, notably the recapture of rebel strongholds. Nonetheless, he emphasized that the group leaves behind a state on the brink of collapse.
The Broader Implications
The security situation in the Sahel is deteriorating rapidly, with terrorist activity intensifying in scale, complexity, and sophistication. UN delegates have warned that the security problems in the Sahel are beyond the capacity of national governments, necessitating global support.
Ahunna Eziakonwa, a UN Assistant Secretary-General and Africa Director for the UN’s development program (UNDP), stressed the importance of any help from external actors being “well-meaning” and not undermining human rights.
Conclusion
As Russia transitions from Wagner to the Africa Corps, the implications for regional stability and international relations are significant. This shift represents a calculated move by Moscow to maintain its influence in Africa while mitigating the negative consequences associated with its previous military endeavors. The success of this new strategy will depend on how effectively the Africa Corps can navigate the complex political and security landscape of the region.
