Sudan’s Army Captures Capital Amid Ongoing Conflict
The capture of Khartoum by Sudan’s army marks a significant development in the country’s ongoing conflict. The Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) have declared that they have taken control of the capital from the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), a group accused of widespread atrocities. This event comes after a brutal two-year conflict that has claimed the lives of over 28,000 people and displaced 11 million others, according to the United Nations.
The conflict between the SAF and the RSF has been characterized by a power struggle between two powerful generals, Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo. Their feud over control of the country began after the fall of former President Omar al-Bashir and a subsequent military coup. The conflict has resulted in what the United Nations has described as the world’s most devastating humanitarian crisis.
Despite the SAF’s territorial gains, analysts warn that the conflict is far from over. The RSF still maintains control over nearly all of the Darfur region, which could become the next battleground. The RSF, which grew out of the notorious Janjaweed militia accused of genocide against the non-Arab population in Darfur in the early 2000s, continues to be a formidable force.
The RSF has faced a series of losses in recent weeks, forcing them to retreat from key positions within the city. The SAF has posted videos on social media showing RSF fighters fleeing Khartoum, hours after reclaiming the airport. However, the RSF remains entrenched in other parts of Sudan, including Darfur, where they are attempting to establish a parallel government.
The Next Battlefield: Darfur
Sudanese pro-democracy activist and researcher Hala Al-Karib told CNN that the battle for territorial control could shift to Darfur, where the RSF is more entrenched. The RSF seeks to establish a parallel government in the region, which is roughly the size of France. The RSF has been accused of committing another genocide following the systematic murder of “men and boys – even infants – on an ethnic basis,” according to the United States.
The RSF’s efforts to establish a parallel government have included signing a charter with political and smaller armed groups allied to it. This charter aims to establish a secular and democratic state based on freedom, equality, and justice. However, experts believe that the RSF lacks the capacity to create a parallel state, as it has been significantly weakened by the SAF.
Civilians Paying the Price
The conflict has come at a great cost for the Sudanese people, who are often caught in the crossfire. In North Darfur, many people were burned beyond recognition when bombs rained on a busy market in Tora, a rebel-run village. The RSF shared footage of charred bodies in a Telegram post, accusing the SAF of carrying out a series of airstrikes targeting the market and nearby homes that left over 400 people dead. However, CNN could not verify the number of casualties.
Volker Türk, a UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, expressed deep shock at the reports, stating that 13 of the victims were from a single family. The SAF spokesman, Nabil Abdullah, stated that civilians with no ties to the RSF are not targeted by the military. He emphasized that the SAF is protecting civilians and preserving their lives and property, unlike the RSF, which has continued to bombard civilians with drones, artillery, and missiles.
Sudan’s Future: Reset or Division?
The SAF’s military successes in Khartoum could further fracture Sudan or make the RSF more amenable to being pushed into talks with its rival. Previous negotiations mediated by the US, Saudi Arabia, and the African Union have reached a deadlock. Bringing the SAF and RSF back to the table will not be simple, as the war has added an ugly ethnic taint to the political and economic conflicts that will be difficult to resolve even with a national level agreement.
The RSF’s move to form a separate government is seen as a pressure card on the SAF to engage with them and to legitimize themselves as a political force in case of any political talks. However, the prospects for negotiations that could potentially usher in a coalition government between the SAF and RSF appear to be a long shot.
The Road Ahead
With the military presumed to have the upper hand, it will likely press on, according to Sudanese human rights lawyer Mutasim Ali. He believes that the conflict is far from over, but the SAF will now have a major advantage. In the meantime, the SAF will institute a government that will be less open to negotiations and further insist on military victory.
As the conflict continues, the future of Sudan remains uncertain. The SAF’s capture of Khartoum is a significant moment, but the road to peace and stability will be long and fraught with challenges. The international community will need to play a crucial role in facilitating dialogue and ensuring that the rights of all Sudanese citizens are protected.
