Unprecedented Tropical Activity in the Atlantic
The Atlantic basin is experiencing an unexpected surge in tropical activity, with Hurricane Gabrielle currently active and two additional potential systems forming. This development has caught meteorologists by surprise, as the 2025 hurricane season had started more slowly than expected.
Hurricane Gabrielle’s Impact
Hurricane Gabrielle, classified as a Category 3 storm, is located east of Bermuda, where it is generating powerful winds of 125 mph. Despite its strength, the storm has not made landfall on the island, and its impacts have been minimal so far. However, it is expected to continue sending large swells and rough surf to Bermuda throughout the week. The storm will also affect the U.S. East Coast, creating dangerous rip currents and rough seas from North Carolina to New England through midweek.
Emerging Storm Systems
Two areas of stormy weather are being closely monitored by the National Hurricane Center. The first system, located farther east, is showing signs of organization and has a high probability of becoming a tropical depression or storm by Thursday or Friday. Weather conditions around this system are becoming increasingly favorable for development, which could lead to the next named storm of the season.
The second system, slightly weaker and less organized, is moving over the Lesser Antilles. It also has a high chance of developing into a tropical depression near the Bahamas later this week. Before that, it may bring bursts of rain and wind to the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola. The National Weather Service predicts widespread rainfall of 2 to 4 inches, with some areas potentially receiving up to 6 inches. Given the recent heavy rains in Puerto Rico, additional precipitation could increase the risk of flash flooding and landslides.
Uncertain Paths and Predictions
The paths of these potential systems are still difficult to predict due to their lack of organization. However, weather models suggest several possible scenarios. The eastern system might follow a path similar to Gabrielle, bringing it near Bermuda next week. The disturbance near the Leeward Islands could either become a short-lived system near the Bahamas or develop into a longer-lasting storm that follows a track similar to Hurricane Erin, hugging the U.S. East Coast.
Historical Context and Climate Trends
September is traditionally the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season, and activity often increases rapidly during this time. While the 2025 season started slower than anticipated, both hurricanes that formed—Erin and Gabrielle—underwent rapid intensification over warm ocean waters. This trend of rapid intensification has become more common in recent years, attributed to the warming planet caused by fossil fuel pollution.
Dr. Phil Klotzbach, a hurricane expert at Colorado State University, noted that the last time a season’s first two hurricanes were major hurricanes was in 2011 with Irene and Katia. This historical context highlights the significance of the current situation.
Implications for the Season
Despite the late start, the 2025 hurricane season may not be quiet. With two more potential storms brewing and ample warm ocean water ahead, the tropical Atlantic could see increased activity. Meteorologists are closely monitoring the developments, as the potential for further storms adds to the uncertainty and complexity of the season.
As the season progresses, continued vigilance and preparedness will be essential for coastal communities and those in the path of potential storms. The combination of strong hurricanes and emerging systems underscores the importance of staying informed and taking necessary precautions.
