Russia’s Strategic Shift in Africa: From Wagner to the Africa Corps
Russia’s military presence in Africa has undergone a significant transformation. Once dominated by the notorious Wagner Group, the country is now transitioning to a new entity known as the Africa Corps. This shift represents a strategic move by Moscow to maintain its influence while distancing itself from the controversies surrounding Wagner.
The Rise of the Africa Corps
The Africa Corps is not a self-run organization. Unlike Wagner, which operated independently and often outside the framework of formal military structures, the Africa Corps is placed under the umbrella of the Russian defense ministry. According to the group’s official Telegram channel, the corps consists of elite combat commanders from Russia’s army. Priority recruitment was also given to current and former Wagner fighters, indicating a continuity of personnel but with a different operational structure.
Operatives of the Africa Corps have since joined the battlefield, conducting joint operations with local militaries against militia groups. This shift is particularly evident in countries like Mali, where Wagner had previously sustained some of its worst known losses. With Wagner’s exit, the Africa Corps has taken over, aiming to maintain Russia’s military foothold in the region.
The Context of Western Withdrawal
The vacuum left by Western troops has created an opportunity for Russia to expand its influence. Several governments in the Sahel have expelled Western forces between 2022 and 2025 due to anti-Western sentiments. This has allowed Russia to position itself as a sought-after security partner both within and outside the Sahel.
In parts of the region, such as Mali, the Africa Corps has been involved in combat against insurgents. This aligns with Russia’s broader strategy of offering military support to African nations that are facing internal conflicts and external threats.
The Role of the Africa Corps in Central African Republic
The Central African Republic (CAR) has been a significant hub for Wagner’s activities since 2018. Following the exit of French troops in 2022, Wagner became the dominant force in the nation, helping to stave off collapse. However, recent developments suggest that the Africa Corps is being introduced in CAR as a replacement for Wagner.
Military officials in CAR have reportedly asked the Russian defense ministry to substitute the Africa Corps for Wagner and to pay for its services in cash. This shift is part of a broader effort by Moscow to maintain its influence in the region while avoiding the negative connotations associated with the Wagner brand.
Financial Arrangements and Alleged Backdoor Deals
The financial arrangements for Wagner’s services in CAR are not entirely transparent. Martin Ziguélé, an opposition lawmaker who served as prime minister from 2001 to 2003, told CNN that the remuneration for Wagner’s services is done in an extremely hidden and discreet manner by CAR’s government. Previous investigations by CNN found that companies linked to ex-Wagner leader Yevgeny Prigozhin had won concessions to mine gold and diamonds in CAR, where nearly 70% of the population lives in extreme poverty.
Prigozhin, who was killed in a plane crash in August 2023, was a key figure in Wagner’s operations. His death marked a turning point for the group, leading to its eventual withdrawal from certain regions.
Strategic Rebranding by Moscow
According to Héni Nsaibia, a senior analyst at the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED), Russia’s move to replace Wagner in Africa could be a “strategic rebranding” by Moscow. With the Wagner name severely tarnished after the mutiny and Prigozhin’s death, Russia is likely consolidating its foreign military ventures under formal state control by erasing the ‘Wagner’ brand while retaining its core functions under a new name like the Africa Corps.
This rebranding allows Moscow to distance itself from the mercenary narrative while maintaining a strong presence in the region. It also provides greater control over operations and potentially more international legitimacy, reducing legal and reputational risks.
Legal and Reputational Risks
Wagner has faced lawsuits from human rights groups over accusations of human rights abuses. The European Union sanctioned the Wagner Group and individuals and entities connected to it in 2021 and 2023. The EU’s actions were aimed at addressing the group’s involvement in acts of violence and multiple human rights abuses, including extrajudicial killings.
United Nations experts have also called for an independent investigation into alleged crimes committed by the Wagner Group and the Malian military. Their statement highlighted the lack of transparency and ambiguity over the legal status of the Wagner Group, creating a climate of terror and complete impunity for victims of the group’s abuses.
Mixed Views on Wagner’s Impact
While many questions remain about Wagner’s operations in Africa, there are mixed views about the impact its counterterrorism operations with local armies have had on the continent. Security consultant Mamadou Adje noted that he doesn’t see what Wagner has brought to the battle against terrorists, citing the spread of jihadists across Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger with lots of civilian casualties.
However, Héni Nsaibia acknowledged that Wagner helped Mali’s military achieve some tactical and strategic victories, notably the recapture of rebel strongholds. Nonetheless, he emphasized that the group leaves behind a state on the brink of collapse.
The Future of Security in the Sahel
Earlier this month, UN delegates told the Security Council that security across the Sahel is deteriorating rapidly, with terrorist activity intensifying in scale, complexity, and sophistication. Ahunna Eziakonwa, a UN Assistant Secretary-General and Africa Director for the UN’s development program (UNDP), warned that the security problems in the Sahel are beyond the capacity of national governments, highlighting the need for global support.
Eziakonwa stressed that any help from external actors should be well-meaning, emphasizing the importance of supporting human rights regardless of the source. This underscores the complex dynamics at play in the region, where the balance between security and human rights remains a critical concern.
