The Growing Drone Threat and NATO’s Struggle to Keep Up
The recent incursion of Russian drones into Polish airspace has sparked a critical debate about NATO’s ability to respond effectively to the evolving threat posed by unmanned aerial systems. This incident, which occurred during a peaceful late-summer night in eastern Poland, highlights the growing challenge that drone warfare presents to traditional military strategies.
Costly Defense Against Low-Cost Drones
The event involved nearly two dozen drones, some of which were identified as Gerbera models made from inexpensive materials like plywood and Styrofoam. These drones, costing around $10,000 each to produce, were met with high-cost responses from NATO. Fighter jets such as the F-16 and F-35, valued at millions of dollars, were deployed to intercept them. While effective, this approach is not sustainable due to the stark cost asymmetry between the low-cost drones and the expensive defense systems used to counter them.
Robert Tollast, a researcher at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), emphasized that while NATO can defend against large-scale drone attacks, the financial burden makes this strategy unsustainable in the long term. He pointed out that the cost of defending against such threats can be staggering, as seen in Israel’s experience where the cost exceeded a billion dollars during a similar attack.
Technological Innovation and Procurement Challenges
Despite the challenges, there are signs of innovation within the defense sector. Companies like MARSS and Robin Radar Systems are developing advanced technologies to detect and intercept drones. However, NATO’s procurement systems are lagging behind, with many defense ministries still operating under outdated processes. Johannes Pinl, CEO of MARSS, noted that while the technology exists, it is often delayed due to bureaucratic hurdles.
In contrast, the war in Ukraine has created a faster procurement process for defense equipment. Siete Hamminga, CEO of Robin Radar Systems, highlighted that countries seeking to purchase equipment for Ukraine have a streamlined path, unlike those looking to acquire similar technology for their own use.
Rapid Adoption of New Technologies
The UK has been at the forefront of adopting new drone technologies. Tekever, a Portuguese-founded defense tech startup, has supplied over $350 million worth of AR3 surveillance drones to Ukraine. The UK’s Royal Air Force has also adopted the AR3 for its electronic warfare system, StormShroud, demonstrating a shift toward more agile procurement practices.
This trend is not limited to the UK. Latvian drone startup Origin Robotics has developed the BEAK and BLAZE drones, which are now in use by both the Latvian and UK armed forces. Agris Kipurs, CEO of Origin Robotics, emphasized the need for new mechanisms to work with the industry, driven by the urgency of Russia’s proximity.
U.S. Response and Strategic Shifts
The U.S. Department of War, now rebranded, is also racing to keep up with the drone arms race. Secretary Pete Hegseth warned that U.S. units are not adequately equipped with the necessary small drones for modern warfare. He outlined measures to streamline the acquisition process, including delegating authorities to warfighters to reduce bureaucratic delays.
Experts like Tollast argue that the key to effective drone defenses lies in a “high-low mix” of expensive capabilities and more experimental, lower-cost solutions. This approach allows for flexibility and adaptability in the face of rapidly evolving threats.
Scaling Production for Future Conflicts
As Russia continues to ramp up production of drones, including the Geran and Gerbera variants, the need for scalable and cost-effective countermeasures becomes even more urgent. Morten Brandtzaeg, CEO of Nammo, is working on producing higher volumes of low-cost missiles to match the price of the targets being shot down.
Nammo has already scaled up production of artillery ammunition and solid rocket motors, crucial components for air defense systems. Brandtzaeg warns that the current efforts are just the beginning, urging policymakers to invest further in increasing production capacity.
A New Era of Military Preparedness
The events in Poland and the ongoing conflict in Ukraine have underscored the need for NATO and its member states to rethink their approach to drone warfare. With the rapid development of drone technology and the increasing number of drones being produced by adversaries, the alliance must find ways to innovate and adapt quickly.
